NBU improved GDP growth forecast for 2018
The National bank improved GDP growth forecast from 3.2% to 3.4% for 2018.
It was reflected in the revised macroeconomy performances of the NBU.
According to the NBU's prognosis, economy growth is to accelerate to 3.4% (previous prognosis 3.2%) this year, up to 2.9% next year (previous prognosis 3.5%).
Forecast for 2020 remained unchanged - 2.9%.
"Main driver of economy growth is private consumption for account of still high slaries growth and other incomes of the population including pensions. Besides, easing of fiscal policy will benefit the process. Additionally, enterproses continue high investment activities," according to the announcement.
According to the NBU, in 2019-2020, real GDP growth will slow to 2.9% as fiscal policy easing influence will end.
Additionally, slow structural reforms will retain increase of long-term economic potential.
This year, nominal GDP is expected at UAH 3 394 billion, UAH 3779 billion in 2019, UAH 4 117 billion in 2020.
Lending renewal is also forecasted. First of all, it will be slow and reflect high risks on institutional environment, in particular, low level of creditors' protection.
Exports role in economic growth will increase due to favorable trading conditions and access extention to external markets.
At the same time, increase of demand for internal consumption and investments will lead to imports growth.
It will result in current account deficit remaining at 3% of GDP in 2018-2020: 3.5% - 2018, 4.2% - 2019, 4.7% - 2020.
Net liquidity balance will be positive 1.8% of GDP in 2018, and negative in 2019 and 2020 -1.1% and -0.1% of GDP respectively.
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