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22.10.2018 | 14:50

S&P worsened Ukraine's GDP growth forecast from 3.1% to 3.0%

S&P revised Ukraine's GDP growth forecast for 2018 from 3.1% to 3.0%, inflation forecast - from 8.9% to 10.3%

Standard&Poor's, international rating agency, worsened Ukraine's GDP growth forecast from 3.1% to 3.0%, inflation - from 8.9% to 10.3% in 2018. 

It was reported by the agency. 

It's noted that Ukraine's GDP will grow by 3.0% in 2018 and the inflation will be 10.3%. in 2019 - Ukraine's GDP to grow by 2.5%, the inflation forecast is 7.5%, in 2020 and 2021 - GDP will grow by 3.0%, the inflation - 7%.

According to the statement, the GDP per capita in Ukraine is estimated at USD 2,800 in 2018 or 70% of the GDP per capita in Ukraine in 2013. According to the statement, more than 1 million Ukrainian citizens worked in Poland in 2017.

"Ukrainian per capita wealth is low. Notwithstanding the nearly 20% average increase in nominal GDP since 2016, estimated per capita GDP (USD 2,800 in 2018) is still 70% of its 2013-level and the second lowest, after Tajikistan, in Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States," the agency notes.

Low income levels explain high net emigration. Over one million Ukrainians worked in Poland last year, with several hundreds of thousands in other neighboring countries. 

This has reportedly caused shortages of qualified labor in western Ukraine, for instance, where a successful automotive industry cluster has been establishing itself over the past few years. 

"We project GDP growth will average 2.8% over our forecast horizon through 2021 supported by domestic demand. Absent accelerated reform momentum, however, such a growth rate is unlikely to help Ukraine's income levels converge, even with the less advanced members of the EUС," S&P says.

References in the article: inflation, macroeconomic indicators, s&p, gdp
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