S&P updated Ukraine's GDP forecast
Standard&Poor's (S&P), international rating agency, improved forecast for Ukraine's GDP from 1.9% to 2.2% in 2017 and from 2.8% to 2.9% in 2018.
It was reported in the rating agency's research update.
"An escalation in tensions between Ukrainian and separatist forces areas in the occupied Donbas region led to a trade blockade in the first quarter of 2017. Exports, mostly of coal and metals, from the occupied territory were prohibited, raising concerns about the potential impact on Ukraine’s economy. However, data so far suggests that the economy has been able to weather the shock and will likely grow by about 2.2% this year", the agency reports.
S&P also notes that exports are also recovering, following the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement that Ukraine concluded with the EU in January 2016.
"Lastly, consumption contributes positively due to a gradually strengthening labor market and real wage increases that have been bolstered by the doubling of the minimum wage at the beginning of the year. Going forward, we expect the negative shock of the Donbas trade blockade to fade out and real GDP growth to accelerate, averaging 3% over 2018-2020", S&P forecasts.
The agency says that continued reform efforts and compliance with the conditions attached to the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), the IMF’s assistance program, will be crucial economy’s recovery.
As to the agency, in 2017, inflation will be 14.3%, 8.7% in 2018, 8% in 2019 and 7.5% in 2020.
- 15:3305.12271205.12.2018 | Macroeconomy27120New Memorandum on cooperation with IMF is approvedThe Government approved drafts Letter of Intent and Memorandum on Cooperation with IMF within stand by program
- 14:5022.1047022.10.2018 | Macroeconomy4700S&P worsened Ukraine's GDP growth forecast from 3.1% to 3.0%S&P revised Ukraine's GDP growth forecast for 2018 from 3.1% to 3.0%, inflation forecast - from 8.9% to 10.3%
- 12:2009.1054509.10.2018 | Macroeconomy5450IMF improved prognosis of Ukraine's GDP growth in 2018The IMF improved forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth from 3.2% to 3.5% in 2018.
- 15:0806.0945906.09.2018 | Macroeconomy4590NBU raised key policy rate to 18%The NBU increased the key policy rate at 0.5 p.p. to 18%
- 10:4603.0938403.09.2018 | Macroeconomy3840Ukraine exports goods and services worth USD 11.2 billion to EU in H1, 2018Ukraine's exports to the EU increased in USD 2 billion
- 16:5628.0840428.08.2018 | Macroeconomy4040NBU said when Ukraine to make arrangements with IMFThe NBU expects to receive USD 2 billion from IMF till the end of autumn.
- 09:5927.0839827.08.2018 | Macroeconomy3980EBRD on privatization: Investors should be realEBRD: new owners of the companies should be real investors.
- 16:1923.0868823.08.2018 | Macroeconomy6880Government prepares to receive next IMF trancheThe government authorized Acting Minister of Finance Oksana Markarova to sign bills in favor of IMF.
16:5807.122781Investors' coming to coal industry seems impossible 14:3707.122496Kyivstar got new CEO 16:1206.122522FUIB afforced Supervisory Board 13:5406.122338Chinese allowed to enter PFTS's capital 15:3305.122712New Memorandum on cooperation with IMF is approved 11:1705.122713Ukrainian Exchange admitted bonds of Alfa Bank and OTP Bank to trading 16:0704.122355Ihor Mitiukov was reselected as NDU's Supervisory Board Chairman 12:5504.122157VAT refund has increased by 12% since January 2018 15:1003.122668EBRD, EIB and WBG launch enterprise survey 12:0703.122362Ukraine is in top three countries by frequency of systemic banking crises