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11.07.2018 | 12:26
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Ministry of Economic Development and Trade published outlook till 2021

Ministry of Economy predicts GDP growth at 3% and inflation at 7.4% in 2019.

Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine predicts GDP growth at 3% and inflation at 7.4% in 2019 

This is said in draft regulation of the Ukrainian Government on the outlook for social and economic development for 2019-2021. 

GDP is forecasted at 3% in 2020 and 4.1% in 2021. 

MEDT anticipates inflation at 5.6% in 2020 and 5% in 2021. 

According to the outlook, nominal GDP shall amount to UAH 3.457 trillion in 2018 meanwhile, in 2017, it was expected at UAH 3.332 trillion. 

Prognosis for producers' prices increased from 10.3% to 11.9%. 

At that, prognosis for growth of nominal wage adjusted to inflation was changes from 9.6% to 10.5%, prognosis for goods and services exports - from 4% to 8.1%, goods and services import - from 6.3% to 9.9%, according to the document. 

The Ministry of Economy also developed two another scenarios. 

According to the optimistic scenarion, the economic growth of Ukraine shall accelerate in 2019 up to 4.1%, in 2020 - up to 5% and in 2021 - up to 5.4%. 
At that, inflation will grow faster - 8.7%, 7% and 5.2% respectively.

The worst-case scenario says the GDP growth would slow down to 1.1% in 2019 with the following insignificant acceleration up to 1.6% and 2.1% in 2020 and 2021 respectively. 

According to the scenario, inflation will accelerate to 12.4% in 2019 and slow down to 8.6% and 6.7% in 2020 and 2021 respectively. 

References in the article: inflation, gdp, medt, macroeconomic forecast
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